Ad Spending Surges to Record Highs in 2025

Adshine.pro09/27/202512 views
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Social media ad spending surged 20.2% year over year in Q2, far outpacing earlier projections of 12.4% growth and adding roughly $4.9 billion in value, according to the latest update from WARC.

 

The researcher’s Q3 global report underscores how the digital triopoly of Amazon, Google, and Meta has only tightened its grip on the advertising market during a period of economic uncertainty. The data suggests that brands unleashed a wave of activity in Q2, a “pre-tariff” window in which many rushed to stockpile goods and push value messaging ahead of anticipated cost increases.

 

Retailers were at the forefront of this surge. WARC tracked sharp increases in retail ad outlay on social platforms, particularly on Meta-owned Instagram (up 18.8%) and TikTok (up 56.8%), which remains mired in questions over its U.S. future. Retail has now become the largest advertising category on both platforms, according to WARC’s analysis supported by Nielsen. Technology and consumer electronics — sectors also exposed to tariff risk — likewise posted significant lifts in social ad spend.

 

Looking ahead, WARC forecasts that global ad spending will be stronger in 2025 than previously anticipated. Full-year growth is now expected to hit 7.4%, reaching $1.17 trillion. That represents the first upward revision WARC has issued in more than a year, a 1.2-point jump from June estimates.

 

The momentum is being driven by digital-first platforms, which will account for nine in 10 dollars of incremental market growth. WARC characterized this as a “pre-tariff windfall.”

 

Social media is set to capture the largest share of new ad dollars at 40.6%, followed by non-retail search (22.2%) and retail media (21.5%). Just three players — Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta — are expected to claim more than half (55.8%) of all global ad spend this year, excluding China.

 

The broader takeaway is that digital has cemented itself as the central growth engine of the post-pandemic advertising economy, despite recurring bouts of macroeconomic volatility. WARC projects that the global ad market’s nominal value will nearly double from 2020 levels by 2027, reaching around $1.36 trillion.

 

By contrast, traditional media channels — newspapers, broadcast television, and radio — continue to decline.

 

Still, not all analysts share WARC’s optimism. As tariffs begin to bite, U.S. automotive and retail marketers are cutting back on digital spending. A separate report from eMarketer this week suggested a more cautious outlook, forecasting U.S. digital ad spending to grow 9.5% year over year in 2025 to $338.27 billion — two points lower than earlier projections.

 

Informa, which owns a majority stake in Informa TechTarget — the publisher of Marketing Dive and Social Media Today — also has a stake in WARC. Informa has no role in Marketing Dive’s editorial coverage.

 

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